In the polls, Biden and Trump are tied. Democrats’ opinions on it are ambiguous.

Democrats vary in how concerned they are. However, the polls have given Trump’s team and friends more confidence.

In Washington In a possible rematch in 2024, Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are polling evenly, which has Democrats on edge 14 months out from election day. While Biden campaign leaders and some allies discount the new surveys as irrelevant this early in the cycle, some are frightened by the close race.

However, Democratic strategists do agree on one thing: The former president, who is currently the front-runner in the Republican primary, won’t be deterred from running for office by an insurrection plan or a barrage of criminal accusations.

Dan Pfeiffer, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, stated that Trump is “a coin flip away from the presidency” despite the fact that he is still awaiting trial on 91 felony counts. “We should assume that every presidential election will depend on a number of voters smaller than the crowd at a Taylor Swift concert because of the Electoral College and our fiercely divisive politics,” the author writes.

In a CNN poll issued on Thursday, Trump and Biden were tied at 47% to 46%. They were tied at 46% apiece according to a Wall Street Journal poll released on September 3. Biden and Trump were tied at 43% in a late July New York Times/Siena College poll. In comparison at any point in 2020, when he trailed by as far as 10 points and never got within 3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, the former president is currently polling better against Biden.

The narrow surveys fall “into the moderate worry category,” Pfeiffer continued, citing the New York Times poll as evidence that Trump is now “holding onto more of his 2020 vote than Biden.”

The tight race seems to be being driven by two causes. The first is unease within Biden’s support base. Biden received 95% of the Democratic vote in 2020, but just 87% of Democrats, according to the CNN survey. According to the New York Times poll, Biden received 87% of the votes among 2020 voters, while Trump received 91%. The second is that Biden dramatically underperforms in recent elections among non-white Americans, primarily Black and Latino voters, according to polling data. Biden is only winning 71% of Black voters in the Times poll, compared to winning 92% of them in the 2020 election.

According to polls, Biden’s support among non-white people is declining.

The Trump campaign was interested in those findings.

Democrats “have continued to take for granted American blue-collar workers, Black and Hispanic Americans, and every other voting bloc that typically votes Democrat,” according to Chris LaCivita, a co-manager of the Trump campaign.

The good news for Biden is that he is competing favorably with white voters, notably white college graduates, and independents.

According to Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, “every Democrat was calling me and losing their minds” this summer due to the close race. But he asserted that Biden is the ideal candidate to defeat Trump once more since he has done it before.

On Thursday, Messina remarked on MSNBC, “There wasn’t a poll this time in 2011 that showed Barack Obama winning re-election.” “I just think Democrats need to take a deep breath, realize the polls are going to be terrible for a little while like they were for Barack Obama, and we will win that race again next year when it’s Trump versus Biden,” she said.

However, James Carville, a former Bill Clinton adviser and senior strategist, said he finds the situation concerning.

The polls are not good, remarked Carville on CNN on Thursday. Jim Messina remarked that Democrats should stop wetting the bed, but my wife has already switched me on to rubber sheets.

Political scientist and pollster Matt Barreto, who has connections to Biden and specializes in Latinos, claimed that it is uncommon for national surveys to collect a sufficiently sizable and weighted sample of Hispanic or Black voters to be considered representative. He continued by saying that while he doesn’t minimize the difficulties that lie ahead for Biden, it is only normal for those voters to be “frustrated with incumbents” and want advancement to happen more quickly.

They don’t say things like, “I despise Joe Biden and I think I should vote Republican. They are merely expressing their frustration with certain problems, Barreto stated in an interview. “We think more of these disgruntled voters will side with us than take a chance back on Trump and other Republicans when we fully sell the Biden plan, and the Democratic plan,”

The Biden campaign claims it isn’t “fretting over polls.”

The 2022 midterm elections and subsequent special elections, in which Democrats outperformed expectations and maintained their lead in crucial states, are cited by Biden campaign staff as the strongest predictors of the election. The insiders claimed that a “massive” TV and paid media campaign is just getting started, but the re-election campaign and party committees have yet to adequately mobilize and activate people. They also point out that while Trump is preoccupied with primary opponents and legal expenses, Biden is actively organizing a general election campaign.

In a statement, Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz said, “Coming off the President’s historic midterm performance, President Biden is delivering results, his agenda is popular with the American people, and we are mobilizing our winning coalition of voters well ahead of next year’s general election.” In the election of 2020, voters will have to decide between President Biden and the radical, unpopular MAGA agenda. By working hard and focusing on the task at hand, rather than worrying about polls, we will prevail in 2024.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, claimed that the polls are close because people have “not focused on the choice yet” between Trump and Biden.

The stronger Biden will be, he claimed in an interview, “the more people focus on the comparison, as opposed to favorable-unfavorable on each of them.” Republicans have remarked to me, “I don’t want to see him in the White House again,” even though they favor Trump’s policies.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) asserted that Democrats may influence voters by touting Biden’s record of investing in manufacturing, infrastructure, and reducing the price of prescription drugs. Prices are dropping, he continued. “Everything is moving in the correct direction. Therefore, I firmly believe that things will change as people start to experience the benefits of those programs in their day-to-day lives.

The Electoral College is Trump’s ally.

Trump’s supporters claim that the surveys refute claims made by GOP opponents and elites that he lacks the experience necessary to prevail in the general election and consolidate his position as the party’s front-runner.

Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, a supporter of Trump, said in an interview that it “shows that this idea that Donald Trump can’t beat Joe Biden is a farce.” I hate to say it, but among too many of my Senate colleagues, there is this strange belief that if Trump is the nominee, we will lose the presidential race.

You know, it won’t be simple. I won’t make any claims that it will. However, I believe he has a strong chance of winning the presidency once more, said the first-term senator and devoted supporter of Trump.

The GOP’s edge in the Electoral College contributes to some of the Democratic Party’s worry. Despite losing the popular vote by 3 million votes (or 2 percentage points) in 2016, Trump was elected president. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 7 million (or 4.5 points), defeating Trump by just 45,000 votes across three states. Biden will once again need a sizable victory in the popular vote to win re-election, barring a significant and unexpected shift in party alliances.

In the event of a tie in the popular vote, Vance asserted, “I don’t see any way that Trump doesn’t get 300 electoral votes, at the very least.”

As long as he finishes within 4 points behind Biden nationwide, according to Tony Fabrizio, a top Trump pollster who now works for his super PAC, the former president will win the Electoral College.

The main battlegrounds will be the focus for Biden’s team, according to Barreto.

People are too concentrated on eight to twelve states. It might make a bigger difference to move 15,000 votes in Nevada than 500,000 in Pennsylvania, he said. “What I am personally concentrating on is simply examining where things stand in these critical states and who we need to mobilize on Election Day,” she said.

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